Predictive model suggests curling weed – ScienceDaily


Ecology scientists at the University of Massachusetts and climate scientist at the University of Washington said that climate change could lead to a general ragweed increase in its growing range in the north and northwest of the metropolitan area, and conditions for millions of people with hazelnuts and asthma.

Plant Ecologist Kristina Stinson at UMass Amherst, who heads a research group that has studied this fact for more than a decade – especially how it responds2 Level – worked on climate model and correspondent author Michael Case at UW on this project. Details online will appear in the journal PLOS one.

They noted that although Gravel is likely to be expanded by its range, it can be moderate by the plant's own sensitivity to climate change. For example, it is indicated that their analysis, which is negatively negative correlation with very low or too high annual precipitation, indicates "extremely sensitive to the precipitation and temperatures of the precipitation," the authors note. Stinson adds that this may be a major uncertainty; "If the north begins to get wet and cool, it's less hospitable," she says.

"For one reason, we are choosing a rug study because of the effects of human health, rheumatic dust is a summer allergic decay chair that has led to North America, so it's reflected by many people," said the plant ecologist.

Learn more about the impact of climate change on the general ragweed, maximal, predictive model of the spread of Stinson and Case using climate and biochemical data and observation in Eastern America. They use data in the Global Biodiversity Information Establishment, based in Denmark, which provides hundreds of millions of accident cases across the world, as well as the herbarium records of vegetable data such as UMass Amherst.

Stinson notes that "more than 700 data distribution in North America is calculated and filled in the database that determines the climate according to each exact location, after which we used climate change models, what can happen."

The authors also noted, "our model of development and testing, we have a global future of the common distribution gamovadginet 13 global climate models, the late-late centuries in two greenhouse gas scenario, the future expansion of the hotspots, we will also give us the confidence to measure global climate models for the number y prices. "

The model suggests that the overall ragweed "substantial compression" can intersect in Central Florida, the southern Appalachian Mountains and the North Virginia, along with areas of potential expansion of the northern margins of its current distribution, namely the North American

Stimton added that it is "very interesting to see the radius range expanded, because what we can expect for sweet species, but I'm interested to see where is it likely to be widespread and where can we see? The compression of the range seems to be temporary burst, In the 2070s. "

"While other factors and modeling approaches should be studied, we offer a pre-conception of where the general ragweed may be a new concern in the future, expanding the monitoring areas and potentially enhancing efforts to eradicate".

Stinson notes, "We do not have many models like telling where individual species can go under different scenarios, ecologists work on this type of learning over the species, but not always enough data points around the world, individual varieties of data are rare but ragweed becomes quite abundant , That's why this research is possible. "

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