A decade without any global warming is more likely if the climate is more susceptible to carbon dioxide emissions, a new study has revealed.
Studies conducted by Exeter University Science and the Ecology and Hydrology Center conducted a new survey, which led to the removal of both the wave.
Using a modern climate model, a team led by PhD-Nix, a doctor who is more sensitive to the climate2 Concentration has shown a greater variation of warmth over a decade.
Unlike simulations without carbon dioxide, the authors managed to measure the natural variability of each climate model.
The survey was published this week Nature climate change.
Femke Nijsse, exterior of the University: "We were surprised that even when we took into consideration that the sensitive climatic models are more in the last decade of the twentieth century, these sensitive models are still much cooler."
Climate sensitivity, which is in the heart of climate science, is the global warming rate of atmospheric CO2 Concentrations are increasing.
For many years, estimates that climate sensitivity is somewhere between the temperature of 1.5-4.5 ° C for the preliminary industrial CO2 Level.
The study showed that cooling – or "pause" for decades is more than twice as likely as the high sensitivity models for a century (models, warm 4.5 º C after doubling CO2), Relatively low sensitivity models (models that warm 1.5ºC after doubling CO2).
Co-author Dr. Mark Williamson, Researcher reader: "This does not mean that we are living in a very sensitive country in the early twentieth century, impeding global warming.
"Looking at all the decades together, we get a better picture and we will see the observations on the central assessment of climate sensitivity"
Ms Nizs added: "We still do not know exactly what the climate system will do, nor do we know what the natural change in the trends will be for the next decade, but our research shows that these risks should not be treated as separate."
The newspaper also studied the possibility that the 21st century was warm for decades, as well as in the 20th century – a scenario called the research group called "hyperlinks."
Under the scenario where carbon emissions increase again, the chance of hyperbarization depends more on climate sensitivity than the long-term global warming trend.
Increasing climate sensitivity will increase by more than 50% of the 3% Central Assessment Increasing global warming at the end of this century, which has risen by about 50%, but chances of a decade of hypertrophy will increase more than 10 factor.
The research was supported by the European Scientific Council (ECCLES Project) and the British Environmental Research Council.
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